Your Team Can Win a National Championship: SMU Edition

Once sentenced to the CFB “Death Penalty”, now a Playoff team in the inaugural 12 team playoff. It is quite fitting that the Mustangs have risen from the ashes at the same time that NIL has emerged to the front of the game. SMU isn’t one of the biggest spenders in the Nation, but they have a competitive collective and are also the only team in their conference that is located in Texas. It was rumored that SMU was added to the ACC to serve as the middle point for the conference’s Olympic sports, and now in their first year they earned a spot in the ACC Conference game and an at-large berth in the playoff.

SMU can win a national title because of their path. SMU is matched up with Penn St and while they are the #4 team in the rankings and #6 seed, they have had a problem in the big games under James Franklin. If SMU was able to travel north into the cold and upset PSU they would then match up with Boise St, the lone Group of 5 team in the playoff. Their semifinal match would be 1 of Indiana, Notre Dame, and Georgia who will most likely be without Carson Beck. Notre Dame beat up on some teams this year, but they have one ranked win over Army and then the terrible loss at home against NIU. Then you have Indiana who has 0 ranked wins, and got boat-raced when they played their one ranked opponent, Ohio State. SMU is part of the weaker half of the bracket, and now with Georgia’s question marks at quarterback, there is not an outcome for that half that would shock me.

SMU can win a national title because of their defense. SMU’s defense is not littered with 5 stars like the other playoff teams, but they do have emerging star defensive coordinator Scott Symons. Symons defense has posted back to back great years, being a team that generates pressures and allows the offenses to make mistakes. Their front can generate a pass rush without bringing second line defenders, allowing the Mustangs to sit back in their zone defense. They are a classic bend don’t break defense, ranking bottom third in pass defense but in the top 3rd for scoring defense and 3rd down defense. SMU will allow you to get off schedule and make mistakes and then execute when it matters most, but this also means they are susceptible to explosive plays because they are always one missed tackle from a 12 yard reception turning into a 50 yard TD.

SMU can win a national title because they can run the damn ball. Rhett Lashlee at every stop along his way to SMU has ran the ball and ran the ball well. This bodes well for SMU who will be viewed as underdog in virtually every game except for a match up against Boise State. Underdogs have had a script that has worked for the entirety of football, they have to run the ball, control the clock, and play mistake free. Kevin Jennings has been susceptible to making turning the ball over, but SMU can limit that with relying on Senior running back Brashard Smith who is always liable to break off a home run. If Smith can get going early that will allow heavier boxes opening up the pass game for Jennings who has shown the ability to make plays through the air but is also viable to hurt you on the ground, just ask Louisville and Jeff Brohm.

SMU CAN’T win the nation title because their roster just can’t compete. If you paid attention to the CFP drama this past week, where the committee elected to go with 11-2 SMU over 9-3 Alabama, then you’ll know that SMU has no ranked wins. Luckily for them they only played 2 ranked teams: BYU and Clemson. BYU is ranked 47th in Blue Chip Roster Ratio and Clemson is ranked 14th, where SMU is ranked at 99. Not as much in the BYU loss, but it was definitely prevalent in the ACC Championship, Clemson had the roster advantage and Jessies and Joes will always be favored over the Xs and Os. Not only does SMU barely crack the top 100, but they are also the lowest ranked playoff team in BCRR, even including group of 5 Boise State. The Mustangs have their work cut out for them, but the passionate fans in Dallas regardless of what happens in the playoff can say that they’ve officially beat death.